The Verdict is In: What AI Reveals About Swing Voters After Trump’s Trial

Thursday, May 30, 2024 was a historic day for the United States: A New York jury passed down guilty verdicts for former president Donald Trump on 34 felony counts relating to his hush money payments to Stormy Daniels. The impact of this verdict has been momentous and inches political campaigners closer to the answer to a major question: How many voters will change their votes if Donald Trump is found guilty?

While there won’t be a definitive answer to this question until Election Day, campaigners can use Resonate AI-powered data to understand the mindsets of voters in light of this momentous decision and, in turn, utilize that understanding to target and persuade these voters.

Here is how the 23.3M Likely Swing State GE Voters Who Intend to Vote for Trump, a 3rd Party or Write-In, or are Undecided have indicated how a guilty Trump verdict will impact their vote:

Let’s take a look at who the voters in each group are and what they can be targeted on more closely.

Voters Who Plan to Vote for Trump

Of the voters who still plan to vote for Trump in the general election, 56% are male. According to rAI, their top personal values are maintaining traditions, safety in community and nation, and having the freedom to determine their own actions.

This audience exhibits strong and consistent support for Donald Trump as a political figure and leader, showcasing loyalty despite the legal issues and controversies surrounding him. They are deeply entrenched in conservative and Republican ideologies, showing unwavering support for Donald Trump and the Republican party across various elections and policy stances. In particular, they support the Republican party’s positions on immigration control, abortion restrictions, environmental deregulation, and free-market healthcare approaches.

Voters Who Plan to Vote for Biden

Of the voters who plan to vote for Biden as a result of the verdict, 65% are female. rAI shows they personally value a life full of excitement, novelties, and challenges, acquiring wealth and influence, and maintaining a good public image.

While this audience consists of individuals with strong political views who lean towards progressive ideologies and Democratic candidates, the voting behavior of this audience is not strictly aligned with one party. Instead, it’s influenced by individual candidates and specific issues. They may switch their votes between parties based on candidate qualities or policy positions.

So, where does this group stand on policies? According to rAI, in addition to being environmentally conscious and supporting policies on climate change, this group strongly advocates for social issues such as LGBTQ+ rights, reproductive rights, and gun control measures. They prioritize civil rights and personal freedoms in their political decision-making. However, they don’t stand quite so firm on foreign policy: They may question the effectiveness of both parties in handling international affairs.

Voters Who Will Vote for a Third Party or Write a Candidate In

Finally, of the voters who have decided to write in a candidate’s name or vote for a third party, 55% are female. They value having the freedom to be creative and determine their own actions, and they also care about nature.

This audience demonstrates a strong inclination towards alternative political options, showing a high index value for considering third-party candidates, expressing disillusionment with mainstream parties, and being undecided on traditional party choices. They prioritize individual issues over party loyalty and exhibit skepticism towards mainstream political figures. However, they definitely shouldn’t be counted out because of this: These voters value their civic duty and actively participate in elections.

So, where are they persuadable? This group holds strong convictions on specific policy issues that significantly influence their voting decisions. They prioritize topics like healthcare reform, education policy, environmental issues, and foreign policy in their candidate selection process. They also have strong opinions on foreign policy matters such as the Israel-Palestine conflict and US-Russia relations. They prioritize issues related to military aid, foreign aid distribution, and the handling of international conflicts in their candidate evaluation process.

To learn more about voter trends you need to be aware of to win votes in the 2024 election, read our latest Voter Trends Report.

Resonate is the leader in AI-powered voter intelligence. We have expertise in building and fine-tuning detailed data models and a decade’s worth of data that we use to target voters and make predictions about elections. Additionally, we also offer white-glove campaign management services to help you more effectively implement, target, and run political marketing campaigns. When you think about partners you want on your side in the election, you want to talk to the people who really know AI. You want to talk to Resonate.