We’re down to two candidates, officially. Bernie Sanders, representing the Democratic Socialist side of the party, and Joe Biden, a moderate Democrat, are now the only two left on stage for the remaining primary debates…and, don’t worry, they did stand 6 feet apart in front of an absent studio audience due to recommended safety precautions due to the COVID-19 crisis.
Where the Candidates Stand in Delegates and Engagement
Biden now leads the delegate race with 1,215 pledged delegates, while Sanders trails with 909. The engagement online has been back and forth, with engagement steeply dropping off following the primaries on Tuesday, March 10, which included Michigan, a hotly contested state which Biden won. Many now see the race as over, which explains the drop in online interest.
A significant uptick on March 19 for Bernie Sanders could be explained by a strongly worded announcement he made regarding his $2 trillion plan for dealing with the COVID-19 crisis.
Engagement Surrounding the Former Female Candidates After Biden’s VP Statement
A more intriguing analysis from the pre- and post-debate engagement can be made due to a well-received running mate hint. During the March 15 debate, Joe Biden said, “I can commit that I will, in fact, pick a woman to be vice president.”
Immediately there was speculation as to whether that female vice president pick could be one of the former candidates. The data backed up that speculation. Looking at the engagement rates for the former female candidates, almost all of them had leveled out by the March 15 debate. But, with one sentence spoken by Joe Biden, engagement rates for Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris climbed back up as Americans across the country searched their names and theorized on who they think will be the VP pick.
One outlier you’ll notice is Tulsi Gabbard’s spike in engagement on March 19. That is due to her campaign suspension announcement made that day.
Resonate Voter Intelligence Methodology
Resonate’s AI-driven voter insights combined with best-in-class survey research and monitoring both online and offline behaviors reveal a dynamic, nuanced picture of the American voter on an individual level. Resonate’s insights are homegrown from trustworthy sources, served fresh daily and go beyond an analysis of the static voter file combined with third-party data. Resonate’s data goes beyond basic demographics and political party, revealing the why behind voters’ decisions to support a cause or candidate, allowing campaigns to connect with their desired voter segment and persuade them more effectively.
Resonate anonymously analyzes 10 billion daily online events on more than 550 million devices across 2 trillion words on over 35,000 topics. AI shows us in real-time which candidates saw the biggest lift or decline in viewings of favorable content about them based on online behavior in the five days prior to, and five days following, the debate. This is what we refer to as the Resonate Candidate Index (RCI). AI reveals a clear picture of where the polls are headed and who the American electorate really views as the winners and losers in each Democratic debate.
Stay Tuned for What’s Next in 2020
Stay with Resonate throughout the 2020 election season for real-time, AI-driven updates on the Resonate Candidate Index.
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