“How come Resonate was able to predict the election when pollsters couldn’t?”
This was a question we overheard at the 2025 Reed Awards & Conference. But before we get into it, let’s go back to 2016—just a few days before election day.
Pollsters had all but called the race for Hillary Clinton. At Resonate, however, our data scientists were seeing a shift—one that traditional polling models missed. While most surveys relied on static snapshots of voter sentiment, our predictive modeling detected late-stage behavioral changes, particularly among key swing-state voters, in response to James Comey’s letter announcing the FBI reopening their investigation into her private email server. Had you asked us 2 weeks before election day, our data also showed a win for Hillary Clinton, but that all changed at the last minute.
What we saw was a movement among disengaged voters—people who weren’t showing up in likely voter models but were suddenly motivated to turn out. That’s what polling missed, and that’s why Resonate was ahead of the curve. After the election, even Hillary Clinton acknowledged how fast that shift happened.
The Real-Time Data Advantage
Fast forward to today, and the need for real-time voter insights has only intensified. Election cycles are more unpredictable, voter behavior is increasingly fluid, and the ability to respond in the moment is what separates winning campaigns from the rest.
Take the 2024 election, where digital and CTV ad strategies became a deciding factor. Political ad spend on CTV surged by 125% over the last three election cycles, reaching $1.3 billion in 2024 alone. Campaigns that leveraged real-time audience intelligence didn’t just throw money at ads—they activated the right voters, at the right time, with the right message.
These days, elections are won in ultra-tight races where voters’ minds aren’t made up until they’re at the ballot box. Campaign professionals have been aware that sentiments, feelings, and individual preferences play tremendous roles in determining if people will vote and how since pollster Patrick Caddell convinced Jimmy Carter to focus on the “trust factor” back in 1976. However, including that sort of nebulous information in campaign predictions has eluded data-driven pros—until now.
Why This Matters for Future Elections
So how did we predict the election when pollsters couldn’t?
Over the past 16 years, Resonate has invested over $100M into training our proprietary AI data engine, rAI, and continuously refined our models to understand granular, individual voter behaviors. Our continuously updated data allows campaigns to move beyond outdated polling methodologies and into the era of predictive, adaptive, and actionable intelligence. Instead of relying on self-reported opinions from weeks-old surveys, our AI-driven models analyze real-time digital behavior, media consumption, and evolving sentiment to forecast who is actually going to vote—and what will motivate them to do it.
Pollsters ask. Resonate observes.
That’s why we got it right.
Want to see how real-time data can give your campaign the edge? Let’s talk.
