This article appeared in USA Today. Read it in full here.
With just a week before Election Day, more undecided voters in battleground states are leaning toward Republican candidates on five key issues, according to Resonate, an AI-powered consumer data and intelligence company.
But the new Resonate report updated for USA TODAY also shows Democratic candidates, including Vice President Kamala Harris, have gained ground over the past 12 weeks on their Republican opponents such as former President Donald Trump.
“This year we’re watching closely as Republicans may currently hold some advantages,” said Ericka McCoy, the company’s chief marketing officer. “But shifting public sentiment presents key opportunities for Democrats.”
Resonate has tracked nearly 400,000 undecided voters in nine battleground states since Aug. 2. Through their processes, they’ve determined which party those voters are more likely to trust on the economy, crime, immigration, foreign policy, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Where undecided voters in battleground states lean on immigration and the economy
Two prominent issues in the 2024 presidential election have been immigration and the economy. Resonate has found a larger percentage of undecided voters are generally leaning toward Republicans on both issues, but the gap between the parties has narrowed in recent weeks on jobs and the economy. More on those shifts later.
Resonate’s process is unlike typical polling that extrapolates the pulse of American voters from a few hundred or thousand responses. The company uses its AI-modeling system to develop insights on about 250 million people. Its expansive data set includes more than 4 trillion bits of information that create detailed profiles including everything from demographics and psychographics to why people make the decisions they do.
Using anonymized identities, Resonate has tracked 397,000 undecided voters in battleground states since August and analyzed how their online interactions appear to have shifted in the past 12 weeks.
Republicans or Democrats: Whom do you trust to handle jobs and the economy?
According to Resonate, undecided voters in Pennsylvania made one of the largest percentage shifts toward Democratic candidates on jobs and the economy and erased a significant advantage for Republicans.
Republicans or Democrats: Whom do you trust to handle crime?
Republicans generally maintained their lead with leaning undecided voters on crime in all nine battleground states, but the number of voters that do not lean toward either party now is significantly larger than most of the gaps – except for Wisconsin.
Republicans or Democrats: Whom do you trust to handle immigration?
The majority of undecided voters in battleground states lean toward Republicans on trust to handle immigration, but in Arizona and Nevada, few voters lean toward either party.
Republicans or Democrats: Whom do you trust to handle foreign policy?
The two parties have largely lost leaning undecided voters during the past 12 weeks on foreign policy. With that backdrop, Democrats made significant gains on the issue with undecided voters in two states: Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Republicans or Democrats: Whom do you trust to handle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict?
A larger percentage of undecided voters are leaning toward Republicans on trust to handle the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian territories, the voters’ opinions have shifted significantly. Since August, more voters have leaned toward Democrats in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
How undecided voters have shifted in recent weeks in their states
A higher percentage of undecided voters in Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina and Arizona continue to lean Republican. But in states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, more undecided voters have shifted toward the Democrats’ camp.
Here’s a look where undecided voters stand on four of the five issues in the nine battleground states. Voters’ opinion of foreign policy has generally moved in tandem with their trust in Democrats and Republicans to handle the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Pennsylvania’s undecided voters leaning the most
Perhaps it’s not surprising that with all the attention Pennsylvania’s voters have received, the state has the highest percentage of undecided voters who lean toward one or the other party.
Of the nine states, the two Western states have the highest percentage of undecided voters who are not leaning Democratic or Republican, according to Resonate. Republican have lost 17 percentage points on foreign policy in Arizona, while Democrats have lost 11 percentage points in Nevada.
