This article appeared in USA Today. Read it in full here.
The Taylor Swift effect brought new fans to America’s biggest sporting event this past winter. Will the pop star’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris after Tuesday night’s debate drive more votes in the year’s biggest election?
Yes, says Resonate, a data and intelligence company that analyzes trillions of online interactions. Typical polling extrapolates the pulse of American voters from a few hundred or thousand responses. The Reston, Virginia, company uses its AI modeling system to develop its own insights on 250 million people.
Resonate says 2.3 million Americans in battleground states are more likely to be swayed by celebrity endorsements. Those people may be rethinking their voting plans because of Swift’s Instagram post, which supported Harris and chided former President Donald Trump for a false AI-created endorsement of him.
How many battleground voters Taylor Swift might sway
Resonate’s definition of battleground state is broader than most, but should the Swiftie faithful turn out for Harris in states such as Florida, would it perhaps return to battleground status? The company estimates as many as 667,000 Florida voters, or 29% of the 2.3 million, might be swayed by Swift.
Demographics of people influenced by Taylor Swift’s endorsement
Of the more than 2 million people, it’s not just younger, female voters. Still, the majority of Americans who are more open to supporting and voting for Harris are likely to be millennial women.
Will Taylor Swift make another supersize impact?
This isn’t the first time in 2024 when Swift had an outsized impact beyond her music making, which grossed more than $1 billion during her Eras Tour.
Her romantic relationship with the Kansas City Chiefs’ Travis Kelce boosted NFL game viewership by teen girls by 8% in the 2023-24 season, according to Nielsen. The audience measurement company said her presence at Super Bowl 58 helped make the game the most-watched telecast ever with 123.4 million viewers.
So it probably came as no surprise after Tuesday night’s debate that Swift’s endorsement moved even offshore presidential betting markets. Presidential election betting can’t be done legally in the U.S.
How Harris’ odds of winning jumped during the debate
Much of Harris’ upward momentum in betting markets occurred during the debate by both Betfair Exchange and Polymarket data. They also showed upticks in Harris’ odds after Swift’s endorsement.
Certainly it’s a much easier to watch football on TV than registering and actually casting a vote. But another more tangible Swift effect has already rippled through Vote.gov.
Vote.gov received 405,999 visitors from Swift’s custom URL in the 24 hours after her message was posted on Instagram, according to data from the General Services Administration. In the week before, the site had about 30,000 daily visitors.
Vote.org is just a first step, though. The site doesn’t offer voter registration, but it points visitors to their states’ election sites, where they can learn their states’ processes.
Resonate estimates that among the 2.3 million people who were moved by Swift’s endorsement, 79% are registered voters. And 828,000 people, about 36%, who were on the fence about voting say they are more likely to turn out.
Some voters want more before siding with Trump or Harris
Just because these Americans’ interest has been piqued by Swift doesn’t mean they’re suddenly in the Harris camp. Resonate estimates 874,000 are still undecided and are moderates on fiscal and social issues. Some overall characteristics of these 2.3 million Americans:
- Economy: 805,000 aren’t sure which party they trust when it comes to jobs and the economy, and they are more likely to say “times are hard.”
- Abortion: 64%, or 1.5 million people, agree with Harris’ stance on abortion, but many also are uncertain about which party they can trust.
- Safety: Three in 10 say they are worried about crime, violence or mass shootings as well as being discriminated against.
