As we inch towards November 3rd, veteran strategists and average Americans alike are sharing their custom 270 to win maps. The tool lets the user channel their inner John King, forecasting the Election Day results by assigning each state a shade of red, blue or neutral.
At first glance, most maps look pretty similar: a sea of red with some choice blues in key places. The scoreboard that hangs above typically shows a winner by a close margin, tipping the balance left or right depending on which color you liked on a particular battleground.
However, campaigns that are still locked in tight races understand that the color that emerges on November 3rd by swing states/districts will have a lot to do with what happens in the days to come. These campaigns still need to fight tooth and nail for every vote. Remember that Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by less than 80,000 votes – combined!
Winning on a shoestring requires a surgical GOTV targeting and messaging strategy leading into First Tuesday. It’s about finding the voters who are still on the sidelines but represent niche electoral segments that campaigns can still convince to get out and vote for their candidate – if they have the right message.
At Resonate, our online behavioral models specialize in identifying, analyzing and targeting these niche voter audiences with unparalleled speed and accuracy.
Let’s take a look at who these voters are today based on how they are behaving – right now – online. What are the individual-level political insights, values, and motivations that can provide that extra push to drive votes, close margins and win races?
While the audience profiled in the piece is national, contact Resonate today to size out, tell you about, segment and target these voters in your region.
National voter audience: self-identified registered voters online who voted in either 2016 and/or 2018, but plan to sit out 2020
Resonate models have identified an online voter audience of over 8 million users who are registered to vote and voted in either the 2016 General Election and/or the 2018 Midterm Elections, but if the 2020 Election were held tomorrow, they would not vote.
These voters heavily skew Democrat and the remaining segment is nearly equal parts Republican or Independent.
Compared to your average voter, these voters are 32% more likely to have been frequent voters in non-presidential elections. This is a defining insight because it shows that under normal circumstances, this audience is very politically active, but 2020 is anything but normal.
Nearly 60% of this audience voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and currently, most of these voters are dissatisfied with Trump’s policies. However, compared to your average voter, these users are 25% more likely to be issue-focused voters. Relying on party affiliation to drive turnout won’t play with this group.
On the issues, these voters skew anti-regulation on major policies from healthcare to energy exploration. Fundamentally, this audience does not believe in big government overreach. Compared to your average voter, they are:
- 69% more likely to support fracking and 48% more likely to oppose the Green New Deal
- 34% more likely to oppose the redistribution of wealth
- 52% more likely to oppose a single-payer healthcare system
- 42% more likely to believe free trade deals help the economy
Our models also demonstrate that these voters have no appetite for ego in a candidate and they’re 34% more likely to want lobbying laws reformed, demonstrating their dissatisfaction with the state of play in Washington.
While only a small percentage of this audience identify as military veterans, veteran care and assistance is a top policy priority for these voters. They also support the active deployment of our troops to keep potential enemies at bay.
On a more individual level, this audience values fulfilling obligations and trust from others. These voters are Americans who want safety in their community and nation. Physiologically, they’re driven by creativity and by proving their competency and skills.
Looking Ahead
The above audience exists online, today, and these voters are proof that there are millions of historically active voters in this country who feel disenfranchised by the current system and therefore plan to not participate in November.
For campaigns up and down the ballot that need to battle for every inch down the stretch, these voters could make the difference between a win or loss.
Who are the voters in your district or state who are registered and even identify with your own party, but plan to skip the polls this year? What’s the message that can speak to their hearts and minds and how do you deliver it immediately?
If you’re ready to find out how your region stacks up, reach out today to request a personalized demo or contact us by phone at 855-855-4320. We’re standing by around-the-clock, ready to assist.
