Republicans are gaining meaningful traction with Hispanics, which could spell major problems for Democratic campaigns and a huge opportunity for a GOP to make moves for the majority. Consider that Obama and Clinton won Hispanics by 40% and 42%, respectively. However, Biden only won the Hispanic vote by 26%, a notable dip with a growing and game-changing voter segment. Hispanics are obviously still with the Democratic party; on its face, a 26% margin looks like a comfortable place. But the landscape says it’s anything but comfortable.
The fact is Democrats need to pick it up with Hispanics if they want to keep the majority, or they’ll need to figure out how to stop the bleeding in middle-white America to keep Republicans from running the board in the heartland. Democratic wins in Texas and Florida especially rely on winning and dominating the Hispanic vote.
What’s the strategy to drive the Hispanic vote?
Whether it’s Democrats looking to drive the Hispanic vote back to historic levels, or Republicans looking to keep the momentum working in their direction, they’ll need to understand what lives in the hearts and minds of the 2022 Hispanic midterm voter.
What values and motivations will drive the Hispanic vote come November, and what candidates can speak directly to them?
Going off a gut feeling, strategists could reasonably infer that the recent changes in the Hispanic electorate could be the Democrats’ sharp pivot to the left, COVID restrictions, or a lackluster economy. These could all be true, but painting with such broad strokes is risky and can lead to flat-out misses or significant waste when developing messaging and placing buys for local audiences.
Resonate Models Identified Hispanic Midterm Voters
That’s why at Resonate, we are always prepared for gradual or sudden shifts in the political landscape that can give our clients the winning edge in competitive races. Using the most advanced AI-driven approach to analyze and target online voter audiences in real-time—and at scale—Resonate models have identified Hispanics most likely to vote in November and the issues, values, and motivations informing candidate choice. Below is an example of the data in action:
Our models identified ≈13 million online registered Hispanic voters most likely to vote in the midterms (available for immediate targeting) and compared them to the average potential Democratic midterm voter to glean the most impactful insights.
(Source: Resonate Ignite Platform, October 2022)
The above political drivers report, generated by the Resonate Ignite Platform, gives the most significant insight into the fundamental differences between Hispanic midterm voters and the average online Democratic midterm voters and, ultimately, what is most driving Hispanics this election cycle.
Compared to the average Democratic midterm voter, likely Hispanic midterm voters are:
- ≈100% more likely to care about controlling illegal immigration.
- 72% more likely to support toughening law enforcement and prosecution.
- ≈150% more likely to distrust the mainstream media.
- ≈115% more likely to view progressive liberals as a core threat.
The data is clear. Comparatively, Hispanic 2022 midterm voters are most different than average Democrat midterm voters based on their hardened stances on immigration and law enforcement and what they perceive as overly progressive ideologies.
(Source: Resonate Ignite Platform, October 2022)
The data also shows that, comparatively, this is a younger voter audience.
(Source: Resonate Ignite Platform, October 2022)
When it comes down to values and psychological drivers, this younger Hispanic midterm voter audience values maintaining traditions and is more likely to be religious. They’re also motivated by living an exciting life and gaining recognition from their peers.
Curious to see where this audience spends most of their time consuming political content and watching advertisements? Ask us for our Media Consumption Report. We know exactly where this audience is spending their time between now and November 8th.
The above national midterm voter audience, and thousands of others, can quickly be built and scaled to the local level for deep analysis and precision targeting. As seen above, messages of safety and controlling illegal immigration – while striking a more balanced tone – will hit home with the 2022 Hispanic midterm voter. However, understanding how strategy changes at the local level is absolutely critical. Resonate is here to help with just that. Contact us today to learn what Resonate can do for your campaign in the final weeks.
