The Biden Administration is hitting the reset button on the White House’s messaging strategy amidst falling approval ratings, a stubborn pandemic, and legislative shortcomings in a sharply divided Congress.
The plan, it seems, is to put the Swamp in the rearview for the time being and head towards the heartland to speak directly with the American people ahead of the critical November elections.
At Resonate, we specialize in helping political campaigns, of all sizes, empathize and connect with voters on a deeply personal level by taking a data-first approach. Our machine learning algorithms yield over 13k individual-level insights on 90% of the U.S. electorate, including thousands of niche voter segments that can’t be analyzed or activated in any other platform.
Given the news about the Biden reset, we were curious to see what the Resonate platform says about voters who voted for Biden in 2020, but no longer support him. And speaking of the heartland, we also looked at 2022 likely midterm voters in Pennsylvania who are known swing voters in previous elections. These voters will likely decide one of the country’s most competitive U.S. Senate elections.
Audience 1: Voters who voted for President Biden in 2020, but no longer support him
This audience encompasses roughly 2.3M online voters nationwide. Not surprising, self-proclaimed Republicans and Independents compose 42% of this entire segment (20% and 22% respectively) with Democrats still making up 56% of this audience with a slice of Third Party voters thrown in the mix.
When compared to the 2020 voters who voted for Biden and still support him, the voters who no longer support Biden massively over-index on their passion and concern for Second Amendment and illegal Immigration issues.
Index indicates how likely the audience is to possess a trait, or attribute, as compared to the baseline, with 100 representing the average.
Percentage is the distribution of proportion, of those in the audience who have that specific trait.
In fact, the non-supportive Biden voters are 153% more likely and 74% more likely to care about Second Amendment and illegal Immigration issues, respectively, than the current Biden supporters. For campaigns aiming to win back these voters, perhaps start with these core issues.
When it comes down to the values and physiological drivers behind the motivations of the non-supportive Biden voters (compared to the supportive group), they are most driven by acquiring wealth and influence, maintaining traditions, and expressing individuality.
Index indicates how likely the audience is to possess a trait, or attribute, as compared to the baseline, with 100 representing the average.
Bonus insight: there are nearly 18 million likely midterm voters who are persuadable on President Biden right now, meaning they don’t fall into an “approve” or “disapprove” group. Campaigns on both sides should be pursuing these voters immediately. Want more insights and the capabilities to research this voter segment at scale? Contact Resonate today.
Audience 2: Frequent Pennsylvania Midterm Voters who are known swing voters in past elections
This audience encompasses roughly 690k online Pennsylvania voters. To understand the electoral significance of this particular online segment, consider that the last U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania was decided by roughly 658k votes.
Want to understand and target this voter segment or others like it in your race? Contact Resonate today.
The data show that this swing voter audience is roughly equal parts Republican and Democrat, with the rest of the audience self-identifying as Independents.
When compared to the average Pennsylvania midterm voter, the swing voter audience significantly overindexes on their passion and concern for illegal immigration and improving access to prescription medications.
Index indicates how likely the audience is to possess a trait, or attribute, as compared to the baseline, with 100 representing the average.
Percentage is the distribution of proportion, of those in the audience who have that specific trait.
Additionally, when we analyze the swing voter audience compared to the non-swing voters, we see the swing audience is primarily driven by adherence to obligations, rules and laws. They also seem to value being self-disciplined, obedient, organized and dependable more so than your average PA midterm voter.
Messaging tip to engage with this audience: Consider using themes of being proper, lawful, accountable and decent in your creative and messaging.
The segments analyzed above are just a few of the thousands of micro-segmented midterm voter audiences that we can help you analyze and target immediately.
What are your top issues? What audiences sympathetic to your cause do you need to reach, educate and/or drive to action? Where do you need to build support?
We are here to help. Request a demo or give us a call at 855.855.4320.
