Back in July, Resonate published our highly anticipated 2024 Voter Landscape report, which revealed 10 AI-powered voter segments that would be key to winning the White House in November. The report covered left-leaning, right-leaning, and independent-minded voters, was featured in USA Today, and contained valuable information on Gen Z, many of whom will be voting in their first presidential election and make up 20% of the US population.
Since then, enough has happened to fill the chapter of a history book. President Joe Biden abdicated his campaign in favor of Kamala Harris—a stunning choice that echoed Lyndon B. Johnson back in 1968. There have been two attempts on the life of former President Donald J. Trump. Additionally, Trump and Harris met for the first time and participated in what might be the only presidential debate that will be held before November 5. Finally, Trump and Harris both selected running mates—JD Vance and Tim Walz, respectively—resulting in the creation of a new ballot at the eleventh hour.
The big question is: How have voters developed along with these changes? Resonate data evolves along with the news cycle and changing voter sentiments, so we can actually answer this. Let’s look at the three independent-leaning segments in the Voter Landscape that are recommended for targeting—the Money-Minded Undecideds, the Cyber Crusaders, and the Gen-Z Zealots—to see how they’ve changed since July.
Trust in the Democratic Party Has Decreased
The Cyber Crusaders’ trust in the Democratic Party to handle foreign policy has dipped slightly, from 39% in July to 37% now. Furthermore, the percentage of voters in this audience who are undecided over who to trust on education has increased, from 39% back in July to 41% now. And their trust in the Democrats to handle abortion has dropped by one percentage point. While none of these is, by itself, representative of a massive change for the Cyber Crusaders, overall, it is suggestive that since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden on the presidential ticket and as Donald Trump and the Republicans have rolled out their policy plans, some voters in this audience aren’t feeling as confident about the Democratic ticket as they were previously.
Some Gen-Z Zealots May Not Vote—At All
Out of all four independent segments, the Gen-Z Zealots are the most persuadable when it comes to the current presidential administration. And while experts don’t expect most of them to vote for the Trump/Vance presidential ticket, this does suggest that a significant portion of voters in this audience are looking for a change. It also doesn’t rule out the possibility that there could be a surprise from Gen Z on Election Day similar to what happened during the midterm elections in 2022, when the expected red wave was overswept by an unexpected blue one. More of them say they’re undecided about who they trust to handle abortion and education now than back in July, which may come as a shock to Democrats, who have generally been seen as pursuing a more pro-choice agenda that appeals to Gen Z than their Republican counterparts.
Furthermore, Resonate AI-powered data shows that 38% of Gen Z is unlikely to get to the polls on November 5 at all: 23% of these voters say they “definitely” will not vote and that 15% say they “probably” will not. While it’s not unusual for the youngest voters to be the least likely to vote, the difference between Gen Z and previous generations might be all about perception. Gen Zers are generally perceived as being highly politically engaged and strongly social-justice minded. It could benefit campaigners segment Gen Z audience members to target social justice warriors with relevant messaging and target those who are considering not voting with a “get out the vote” campaign.
The Money-Minded Undecideds Are Still Waiting
Our data shows that the Money-Minded Undecideds haven’t budged from where they were back in July. Of these voters, 58% still are undecided which party to trust when it comes to foreign policy, and 56% don’t trust either party when it comes to abortion. Their top three issues they want to see addressed in this election also remain the same and are also, fittingly, finance-related: passing Medicare for all/single-payer healthcare, raising the minimum wage, and changing taxes for wealthy Americans. They’re not especially leaning in the direction of either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump thus far, suggesting that neither candidate has yet said the magic words necessary to persuade this wallet-focused group to vote for them.
JD Vance’s Impact is Being Felt
Trump’s choice of JD Vance as the vice-presidential candidate—-and the latter’s subsequent highly publicized comments concerning cats and childless women and the consumption (or not) of domesticated pets in Springfield, OH—has had a significant impact on the independent-leaning segments’ likelihood of voting for the Republican ticket. A surprising 38% each of the Money-Minded Undecideds and the Cyber Crusaders say they are much less likely to vote for Donald Trump in November since JD Vance was added to the ticket.
To learn more about these and the other seven segments of voters, read Resonate’s Voter Landscape today. Ready to use the remaining weeks of campaigning to shift voters and ensure you’re targeting them with the right messaging? Reach out to our experts today to discover the Resonate difference.
