This article appeared in USA Today. Read it in full here.
Offshore bettors think it’s more likely presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election following the assassination attempt on Saturday evening in Butler County, Pennsylvania.
At the same time, those betting on the U.S. election on Polymarket, a crypto-trading platform, think President Joe Biden will remain the Democratic nominee. The odds that Biden will stay in the race rose Sunday after he addressed the nation about the attempt on Trump’s life.
As of Sunday at 5 p.m. EDT, the betting – which legally can’t be done in the U.S. – pushed up the likelihood of a Trump victory to just under 70%. It rose to 71% on Monday ahead of the opening day of Republican National Convention.
“This election cycle is already shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable in history,” David Rosenberg, vice president of strategy for Polymarket said in an email. “(Our) forecasts are helping people understand where this race is going in real time, including as events without much precedent unfold, as we saw this weekend.”
The gap between Trump and Biden on Polymarket opened in mid-May – just before they agreed to two presidential debates. It widened further in late June when Biden struggled in the first debate. By last week, three other betting sites listed Trump as a heavy favorite to win the presidency.
How much significance we should place on betting markets and where they are moving about four months before Election Day is up for debate. A few points to consider:
- Gambling data may skew toward Trump: Data from Resonate, an AI-powered consumer data and intelligence company, show voters who will likely vote for Trump in 2024 are 34% more likely than the average American to gamble or go to casinos.
- Markets accurately predicted vice presidential choice: Ohio Senator JD Vance was the prohibitive favorite on Polymarket to be Trump’s running mate on Monday morning – just hours before he was officially announced.
- Chance of winning doesn’t necessarily equate to margin of victory: While betting markets suggest Trump’s chances of winning have risen significantly, recent polling of registered voters doesn’t show a similar chasm between Trump and Biden.
In a similar USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll taken in May, the candidates were tied with 37% of the vote. Following the June 27 debate, the June 28-June 30 poll tilted in Trump’s favor 41-38.
Another finding from that poll raised redder flags for Biden and, perhaps, the election: 41% of Democrats said they wanted Biden replaced at the top of the Democratic ticket.
Bettors on Polymarket appear to think it’s much less likely that Biden will be replaced by Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee.
On three days since the debate, the bookmaker’s odds placed Harris ahead of Biden as the most likely Democratic nominee. But Biden’s response to the assassination attempt may have allayed concerns about his health and fitness as he called on Americans to cool the partisan fervor.
“There’s no place in America for this kind of violence or any violence, ever, period, no exceptions,” Biden said. “We can’t allow this violence to be normalized.”
