With the March 5th primary looming, California is gearing up for intense showdowns. The race for an empty U.S. Senate seat has created an uncommonly competitive statewide battle that has escalated into an all-out brawl in recent days.
Additionally, several pivotal U.S. House races hang in the balance, potentially determining the lower house majority. And lastly, many down ballot state and local contests are poised to dictate the political future of the Golden State.
Unlike the traditional primary systems, California’s jungle primary, also known as a “top-two” primary, puts all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, on the same ballot.
To make it out of the jungle, California campaigns in the closest races need the best data available to analyze this shifting landscape in the final days and decide where they need to invest to capture the lion’s share of the vote.
That’s why Resonate uses AI to help guide our clients to victory in the toughest and most unpredictable political environments in the world, like California.
Our models are processing real-time insights on the California voter segments that will dictate many of the March 5 primaries and they provide immediate targeting opportunities, at precision scale, that are not available elsewhere.
California’s Hispanic Electorate
Our models are tracking an audience of 6.5 million registered Hispanic voters in California.
Despite some recent shifts in voting patterns, our data reveals that Hispanic voters in California still predominantly align with the Democratic Party this election cycle.
However, it’s important to note that 15% of all Hispanic voters in the state currently identify as Republicans, while 20% identify as Independents.
Given that Hispanics still constitute the largest ethnic group in California, their role in the California kingmaking process is significant.
Our models are also closely monitoring this audience’s behavior that tells us their values and motivations driving decisions. We see, that when compared to your average voter in California, Hispanic voters are:
- 34% more likely to value maintaining their traditions
- 25% more likely to value being recognized by others and 22% more likely to value acquiring wealth and influence
- 15% more likely to be driven by their religious beliefs
Our data also reveal the main concerns of California Hispanic voters for the next six months, and when contrasted with the average California voter, this demographic segment is:
- 47% more concerned about themselves or a family member losing their job
- 26% more concerned about a stock market crash
- 20% more concerned about not being able to afford housing
The Hispanic vote will be a significant factor in determining election outcomes in statewide races as well as California’s various swing districts. Our Hispanic voter segments are ready for immediate targeting!
Are there still Independent voters in California?
YES. There’s millions of them. Currently in California, there are 4.2 million voters that currently self-identify as politically independent. For the closest races, these are the voters that campaigns absolutely must win.
Our models are showing that California Independents are going to select candidates on March 5 based on bipartisanship, government spending, homeland security, and tax policy.
Also, when compared to the average California voter, the Independents are almost 20% more likely to want less illegal immigration and increased border security.
The clock is running out in California, but Resonate’s AI models are built to perform in a campaign’s final day. With unparalleled real-time insights and targeting capabilities tailored to connect with California’s most influential voter segments, Resonate ensures that campaigns effectively engage the key demographics that can tip the balance in their favor.
