The winner of the second and final presidential debate was the American voter who’s yet to cast a ballot. Last Thursday night was the type of civilized, issue-driven sparring session that would have helped undecided spectators fill in the blanks.
Online search data during the live debate showed that viewers were most interested in how the candidates plan to handle issues of wages and job creation. According to NBC, “wages” were the most-searched issue on Google in 44 states and “unemployment” dominated the search engine in the remaining six states.
The Google data hammers home that millions of American families, from coast-coast, have been hit hard by the financial blows of this pandemic. As campaigns look to capitalize on last-minute GOTV efforts to undecided voters, higher wages and job creation should be at the heart of the message. Resonate’s real-time behavioral data reinforces the importance of this message among critical last-minute swing voters.
Over 16 million known swing voters plan to vote next Tuesday.
With 1 week remaining until Election Day, Resonate’s online behavioral models have identified a targetable audience consisting of 16.3M known swing voters in recent elections who plan to vote in-person at the polls on Election Day.
The live debate search data and Resonate’s real-time insights show that Tuesday’s swing voters are America’s families that will be voting for their own economic stability and future on November 3.
Consider that, when compared to the average voter, this audience is 25% more likely to say that their family is doing poorly economically. They are also 15% more likely to support a candidate based on their job creation platform. Roughly 60% of this entire audience are men, and over 60% have a household income of less than 100k. They are, by and large, fiscal and social moderates.
Compared to the average voter, these voters are 17% more likely to have their vote influenced by debates. Last Thursday night, they would have been open to the discussion surrounding raising the minimum wage, explaining the heavy spikes in online searches related to the issue. Nearly 90% of this entire audience is either supportive or persuadable on raising the minimum wage, while only about 10% oppose.
President Trump’s messaging on restructuring trade deals, taxes and immigration would have played well with these in-person swing voters. In fact, when compared to the average voter, they are 57% more likely to believe that free trade agreements hurt the U.S., 64% more likely to approve of Trump’s tax and regulatory cuts, and 63% more likely to agree with his approach to illegal immigration.
On healthcare, Biden would have connected with this audience. These voters diverge from Trump on the issue and they’re 61% more likely to oppose repealing Obamacare.
If the election were held tomorrow rather than next Tuesday, our models show that Trump holds an edge with this audience with 48% of the vote, compared to Biden’s 39%. Only 7% of this audience would not vote.
When it comes to values and motivations, these voters are driven by living a life of excitement, novelties and challenges, maintaining a good public image in their communities and gaining respect from others.
Looking Ahead
With millions of voters having already cast their ballot, Resonate’s online predictive models are actively identifying known swing voters who will instead make their decision at the polls next Tuesday. These audiences represent voters that competitive campaigns can focus their GOTV efforts on in the final days.
Ready to find and target these voters in your state or district and deliver a message that says your candidate is the right choice for their family in these uncertain times?
Request a personalized demo or contact us by phone at 855-855-4320. We’re standing by around-the-clock, ready to assist.
