The President’s job approval rating has given many down-ballot Democrats cause for concern and Republicans a shot of confidence heading into the November elections. Polls aside, history shows that presidents almost always take losses in their first midterm elections; this trend dates back to every president since the 30s (with the exception of Bush’s November midterms post-September 11)! Pelosi took back the gavel in Trump’s first midterms, Obama’s 2012 midterms gave rise to the Tea Party, etc.
AI-Driven Voter Modeling and Targeting
At Resonate, We don’t get too hung up on national polls or historical trends. We specialize in AI-driven voter modeling and managing targeted programmatic digital media campaigns to win hearts, minds, and votes at the local level—with speed and at scale. We use our models to help local campaigns access customized paths to 51% through engaging and moving niche voter audiences that no other firm can access.
For example, as we approach fall, our models picked up a critical audience composed of over 19M registered voters online (roughly 8.6% of the projected adult population) who voted for Biden but now strongly disapprove of his job performance. 
(Source: Resonate Ignite platform, August 2022)
This segment represents a tremendous opportunity for campaigns, a broad audience ripe for persuasion. The right messaging to this segment can get the job done.
Our models are uniquely capable of comparing the roughly 19M online Biden Voters who Strongly Disapprove of the President’s job performance (disapprove audience) to another online audience of 21.7M Biden Voters who Strongly Approve of the President’s performance (approve audience). It’s interesting how the two audiences are relatively close in size.
When looking at the disapprove audience, they are much more likely than the approve audience to choose midterm candidates based on their positions on social issues, like abortion, healthcare, and the environment. And currently, they are just about 60% more likely to believe that Biden’s Administration should prioritize gun control and racial equality.
Resonate Data on Perceived Threats to the United States
What’s interesting is what the data shows related to “Perceived Threats to the United States.” The data confirms an understandable worry of midterm Democrats—with Trump out of the way, 2020 Democrat-leaning voters could drop off in meaningful numbers this cycle.
The data shows that compared to the approve audience, the disapprove audience is over 30% more likely to still perceive Trump as the biggest threat to the Country. These voters may disapprove of the way Biden has governed but may continue to vote for Democrats if they believe Trump remains a major electoral threat.
Our data also shows that over 30% of the disapprove audience self-identifies as a Republican or Independent.
Bonus Insight: roughly 35M registered voters online voted in the 2020 Election and are currently persuadable on President Biden (available for immediate targeting). A snapshot of their party affiliation is below.
(Source: Resonate Ignite platform, August 2022)
The above voter audiences, and thousands more niche midterm segments, are available for immediate cross-screen digital targeting through Resonate. Voter turnout means everything this November. When it comes to the issues driving ballot decisions in your race, Resonate is here to ensure you have the deepest insights that can drive immediate, meaningful action when it counts! Contact us today to learn what Resonate can do for your campaign.
